As the world steadily marches towards a low-carbon economy, the global alumina market is set to witness substantial growth, leveraging the escalated demand for primary aluminum, the analysis reports. Projected to grow at a modest CAGR of 3.7% from 2023 to 2030, the market is expected to experience a 1.5x expansion in its revenue, reaching USD 102.5 billion by the end of 2030, up from USD 69.8 billion as of 2022.
Alumina or aluminum oxide stands as a pivotal raw material in aluminum production, a metal witnessing an unprecedented demand in today’s low-carbon economy drive. The intricate report sheds light on the significant uptake in alumina consumption catalyzed by the exponential growth of the primary aluminum industry in recent decades.
- Smelter Grade Alumina’s Significant Role: In 2022, Smelter Grade Alumina (SGA) catered to over 90% of the global demand, carving out a dominant space in the market. The SGA segment is slated to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2023 to 2030.
- China’s Production Hegemony: In 2022, China stood tall as a giant in the production sphere, contributing to over 50% of the global alumina production, amounting to over 140 million tons.
- Russia at the Helm in Europe: Despite geopolitical unrest, Russia retained over 40% of the alumina production share in Europe in 2022, demonstrating significant market resilience.
Challenges Surfacing in the Horizon
The alumina market has witnessed substantial volatility in recent times, predominantly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic that rattled the global supply chain. However, the industry demonstrated remarkable resilience with prices rebounding to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, a trend sustained through 2022. Yet, rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions primarily involving Russia and Ukraine underscore considerable market challenges.
- Indian and Indonesian Markets Showing Promise: Significant investments spearheaded by major players such as the Adani Group in India delineate a bright future for the alumina market in the region. Meanwhile, Indonesia emerges as a focal point for China’s overseas alumina projects, setting the stage for substantial market growth in Southeast Asia.
- Manufacturers Embracing Sustainability: Leading manufacturers are aligning with the global shift towards sustainability, focusing on technological upgrades to curtail GHG emissions and foster a circular economy.
The road ahead for the alumina market is replete with opportunities. With escalating investments in the aluminum value chain and a persistent focus on sustainable operations, the industry is on the precipice of a golden era, basking in the prospects of a 1.5x revenue uplift by 2030.
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